CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 26/09 - 06Z MON 27/09 2004
ISSUED: 25/09 19:19Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across the S Balkans ... Greece ... Ionian Sea.

General thunderstorms are forecast across SE Europe and the central Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

Main feature of interest will be the Mediterranean upper low ... which exhibits several perturbations at its periphery ... the strongest of which is expected to rotate across the Ionian Sea ... Greece ... and the Balkans during the period ... promoting weak cyclogenesis over S Italy/S Adriatic Sea during the day. Main low-level front is progged to stretch from central Russia across the central Balkan and the Ionian Sea into N Africa by Sunday 12Z.

DISCUSSION

...central Mediterranean ... S Balkan States ... Greece...
Focus for convection will likely exist within relatively weakly unstable air mass along and ahead of the cold front which should be located over the Ionian Sea and the central Balkans at the beginning of the FCST period. Shear profiles are expected to be more than adequate for severe evolution with 25 to 30 m/s 500 hPa flow ... and 850 hPa flow of 10 to 15 m/s. Main threat should be severe wind gusts and large hail ... though an isolated tornado or two cannot be exluded.

In the postfrontal environment ... rather shallow diurnal TSTMS should occur ... but organized severe threat should be rather low given rather weak kinematic/thermodynamic fields.

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